ISIS: The Secrets to the Rise and Fall!

By Mohammad Aburumman

تم نشره في Tue 18 October / Oct 2016. 12:00 AM
  • Mohammad Aburumman

Everybody, including proponents of ISIS and Arabs, are shocked at endless trail of losses the terrorist group is suffering in recent months, up to the Mosul liberation battle today, which seems to be going much smoother than everybody expected; as though ISIS appeared right out of nowhere, like some sudden temporary mutation, and will soon to disappear in the same in which they appeared!

Does all this mean the terror group is soon to collapse and fall?!

Necessarily, the Mosul battle for ISIS is a fateful one. But even though the terrorist organisation is deteriorating, exponentially downwards and receding, it remains too early to say whether or not the situation in Mosul is conclusive, with the group should no real resistance; the givens at the moment do not pave for this scale of concrete conclusions based on such primary indications!

Militarily speaking, it will not be an easy or simple battle, at all. Contrarily, it will take an extended duration of time, and it is going to be complex and difficult; ISIS militants, and allies, will fight to their very last breath. We’ve seen it happen in other cities and towns less vital to the group than Mosul, with less fighters on the ground, and less fortification and preparation, while more geographically, demographically, and militarily exposed; Fallujah, Ramadi, Baiji, and Manbij in Syria. Whereas in Mosul, ISIS has thousands of fighters, about to engage in a decisively fatal battle in defence of their families and the communities they built over the last two years in the city of Mosul.

The complexity of the Mosul operation, in addition to the level of intensity expected, driven by the hundreds of prepped suicide bombers, with fighters armed to the teeth, blended in a highly concentrated demographic, about to face Iraqi and Kurdish forces, as well as the Popular Mobilisation militias, with no assurances whatsoever provided should they decide to take any “safe” passages out; neither ISIS nor the Popular Mobilisation force will guarantee their safety. Especially given the catastrophic priors of crimes and violations committed against citizens in Fallujah and Ramadi, according to the testimonies of UN and human rights officials.

The situation’s complexity extends just as well to the coalition of forces and militias on the offensive, regarding the degree of agreement on agendas, and the extent of commitment to the roles and criteria set for the operation and interaction with the city itself and its residents. There are major concerns the popular mobilisation forces will not uphold their part, in addition to the static between Peshmerga and Iraqi forces, topped by the alerted Turkish speculation, which sustains a political incursion in Iraq; so, will the Americans catch a grip on all parties of stakes and interests involved in the situation? Or will something go wrong? Which only supports Sunni fears, given they are the weaker link in the whole equation!

It is unreasonable to imagine the current military op will fail; the group, however resistant, is not invulnerable. It is bound to break. Even the image it appeared in since its beginning has cracked, not to mention the magnitude of loss in the Organisation’s frontier command, like Abdul Rahman Billawi, Hajj Bakr, Abu Muslim Turkmani, and Anbari, who were actually the ones who reconstructed the group’s resurgence, after the fall in 2007, by the hand of the Sunni tribal wakening and the Sunni upheaval against ISIS.

That said, the golden rule, typically ignored, is comprised in the decisiveness of objective factors, both political and societal, as well as the internal and regional enablers, which explain the Organisations fast rise, as well as the current recession. There are no mysteries or riddles in these regards. On contraire, it is all prefaced in the social basis and the logical deduction of social motion and transformation.

Therefore, the absence of a concrete Sunni part in Iraq, should the Iraqi government remain backed by Iranians with the same mentality of dominion and sectarian manipulation, leading to the marginalisation and sidelining of Sunni Iraqis, aiming additionally at the integration of a “beneficial Syria”, would create a fertile ground for yet another ISIS resurgence to address the “Sunni Crisis”!