Trump, Iran, and the Cause!

By Mohammad Aburumman

تم نشره في Sun 5 March / Mar 2017. 01:00 AM
  • Mohammad Aburumman

The recent US outburst against Iran and its policy shows a great deal of hostility.

To some Arab states who’d been living in fear of an Iranian-American agreement to be on their expense, it’s a relief. Especially after the nuclear deal between Tehran, Washington, and other Western states.

The question is: to what extent is this new US rhetoric and tone towards Iran practicable or reflective in reality? Could it really take on a military discourse? Some Western columnist and commentators say it could, in the sort of a US-NATO backed Arab force, others have called it.

It would be foolish to ignore these statements, dismiss them, or take them lightly. They —in the least— show a completely different inclination of Donald Trump’s administration towards Iran, from that of Barack Obama’s. But, no matter how hard the tone is, all the scolding and threats will surely hit a deaf wall of reality.

In the field, fact is, it has more to do with the unprecedented spread of Iran’s influence in the region; through each of Iraq and Syria.

Should the US Administration decide to turn to confrontation, the United States will find itself stuck in a gigantic, boiling predicament, between Iraq and Syria. But that would be the case only if it were really President Trump’s priority to finish ISIS!

In Iraq, the war on ISIS platforms on an indirect alliance between the US and Iran.

Without the Irani-backed militias in Iraq to fight Daesh, aka ISIS, headed by Iran’s own Qasem Suleimani, ISIS cannot be brought down, and a collision with Iran means open war against these militias, which is a farfetched, and frankly unrealistic scenario!

As for Syria, it is not very different.

Considering the Russo-Iranian alliance backing Assad’s regime, neither one of Assad’s friends is ready to let go of their ally.

In the meantime, the US administration is striving to build new accords with Russia to arrive at a consensual resolution, and hold the ceasefire, before anything else.

Regarding the Syrian regime, the West has deprioritised overthrowing Assad and bumped fighting ISIS and Nusra up the ladder.

Notwithstanding, the White House now has growing doubts on whether or not there are any real alternatives to the Syrian regime at the moment.

However, in Yemen, a secondary arena at best, Trump may still stand a chance to draw his line in the sand, according to an article in the “Foreign Policy” magazine.

In that particular regard, a lot is in question as to what the US Administration can and is willing to do, besides logistical support of the Arab Coalition, to help land a successful intervention and break Iran’s widening dominion.

Realistically speaking, Iran’s influence is based on a grid of alliances, interests, balances, and forces on the ground. The Arab’s hope that Trump is going to flip it all around is baseless and void.

That said, the fear is that Benjamin Netanyahu’s government exploits the growing Arab scare and deceptive US hostility towards Iran to construct an Arab-Israeli rapprochement, sponsored by the US, under the supposedly pretext of facing up to Iran, with the biggest loser here being the Palestinians and the Palestinian Cause!

Surely, any alliance or Arab-Israeli intimacy will be on the account of the Palestinian Cause, especially after Trump’s worrying statements on the “two-state solution” and his “postponed” decision to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem.

Underneath it all, the tragedy is that this alignment against Iran is but a delusion which will only bring greater suffering and losses upon us Arabs and our causes!

This article is an edited translation from the Arabic version, published by AlGhad.