Did Diplomacy Succeed in Containing the Gulf Crisis

By Fahed Khitan

تم نشره في Mon 10 July / Jul 2017. 12:00 AM
  • Fahed Khitan

Diplomacy did not succumb to escalation in the Gulf crisis.

For weeks, tension between the four countries and Qatar has been building. Media began launching campaigns to undermine rival states’ reputations.

The four countries were more aggressive in their campaign against Qatar.

Qatari media, after absorbing the first shock of the consecutive isolation decisions, responded with a counter-attack.

The Kuwaiti mediation found itself in the face of an almost impossible task at first.

Despite all the pressures they endured, the efforts to mitigate the rift did not cease.

The Emir of Kuwait absorbed the staunch nerves at first, but when the big fish stepped in, the Kuawaiti mediation was further encouraged, despite the escalation.

Eventually, the global intervention has drew a ceiling to the escalation.

In the past two weeks, global powers have converged on the need to reach a diplomatic solution to the crisis.

For many, the boundaries were set to avoid further escalation and military resolution.

Assurances were extended by the four players to the power halls of the world to insure no further escalation.

Right before the ministers of the four countries convened in Cairo last week to discuss the Qatari response to their demands, Washington stepped in to escalate Qatar’s rejection.

Everybody expected further decisions to tighten the noose on Qatar, but President Trump’s intervention succeeded in breaking the progress of the crisis.

As a result, the four countries sufficed by extending the sanctions and blaming Qatar for the continuation of the crisis.

They also confirmed their intention to put together a new bundle of sanctions soon.

The four countries are expected to hold a second meeting in Manama soon.

With confidence, though, it can be said that diplomacy succeeded in containing the crisis.

Meanwhile, we have two possible scenarios.

First, the Kuwaiti mediation, backed by Washington and Western capitals, could achieve major breakthroughs towards a final consensual settlement.

The second possibility is that, at this stage, diplomacy will suffice in containing the crisis and minimising its consequences, which is the more realistic possibility.

So far, it doesn’t seem that the Gulf Crisis will not be resolved soon.

This means that the excommunication will stand at its current levels.

Consequentially, this may lead to freezing Qatar’s membership in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

In general, this would disrupt the works of the GCC, with the rise of discord in regards to the crisis with Qatar.

Sustaining the crisis at its current level, without a decisive resolution, it may push the four countries to drive unexpected confrontation to end the rattle once and for all.

This article is an edited translation of the Arabic version, published by AlGhad.

Comment