What’s Left of the Revolution?!

By Mohammad Aburumman

تم نشره في Mon 31 July / Jul 2017. 12:00 AM - آخر تعديل في Mon 31 July / Jul 2017. 11:44 PM
  • Mohammad Aburumman

The defeat of the Ahrar al Sham movement, Syria’s largest armed resistance faction, by ex-Nusra Front; Tahrir al Sham, their disintegration has become imminent.

Undoubtedly, their downfall will bring about many a shift in regional agendas which support armed Islamist opposition movements in Syria.

This shifts, mind you, will be fundamental.

Armed opposition has taken a steep downfall against the domination of other armed factions, which cannot be put in the same category, like ISIS and Nusra.

Those now have the floor, the face of Hezbollah and Iran.

What once began a pacifist-civil revolution has now become something else, entirely. Who is responsible?!

Is it the Syrian Regime, whom in my opinion are first and foremost responsible for the Syrian situation? Is it the regional rivalry which led to a war by proxy? Perhaps it’s an international responsibility; of the major powers mostly, their collusion and failures?! Or maybe just the strategic Arab vacancy and confusion?

Are the warlords in Syria responsible? Or did Nusra and ISIS derail the course of the revolution, changing everything we know about the situation in Syria?!

The answer to each and every one of those questions is: yes.

All of the above factors contributed crucially to how it all got to where it did.

But we’re here now, in any way, with more predictable, strategic variables and components, and possibilities for a multitude of outcomes.

Needless to say, our approach must no longer be constrained by the denial, ignorance, and dismissal of the tangible reality in Syria.

What is left today of the Syrian Revolution, thanks to the armed factions, is nothing!

There is very little left to build on, of the revolution.

ISIS controls Raqqa and Deir el Zour; the very opponent of the Syrian revolution’s oun values.

The Tahrir al Sham committee, who once stood on one side of the discourse, ended up destroying their strategic allies —Ahrar al Sham— and have sided with the enemies of the revolution.

Tahrir al Sham controls Idlib, and they have already begun transforming it into a their own Emirate, after signing an agreement with Hezbollah, to deport 900 residents from camps all over, and Ersal, to Idlib.

My guess is that the same will result out of the ceasefire in the Syrian South.

The remaining armed factions are either too weak to present themselves as realistic contenders, or under foreign sponsorship and guardianship, just like the South is.

Naturally, those are not really control.

More importantly, the regional sponsors of the opposition in Syria; Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, have undergone massive shifts. Most forfeited their influence in Syria in the last few months. From Turkey, whose failed coup had pushed a rapprochement with Russia, to the Gulf, whose Crisis is fairly recent.

No doubt, these shifts will reflect on Syria, as it has already begun; i.e. the defeat of the Ahrar al Sham movement and their disintegration.

So, what can be done today to save the revolution? If not, what can be done at all?

This the question the Syrian opposition need to ask themselves. Especially as the Astana Talks have been picking up momentum, imposing ceasefires and military settlements, while Geneva remains stalled. What could be done?

Could the internal socio-political situation be rearranged and rehabilitated? Could the Syrian national identity be rebuilt? Could the values of the revolution be restored? Can the revolution overcome regional and international alignments? Can the businessmen be neutralised in the discourse of the revolution?!

An option, as symbolic as it may be, is to establish the National Opposition Army, to umbrella all of the remaining factions who still carry the banners and values of the Syrian revolution. This means that the revolution would have to reorganise into one movement, no matter how limited, to represent the endeavours and aspirations of the pacifist revolution.

However, before anyone comes to the conclusion that the Regime has succeeded in the fall of the opposition, I’d like to underscore this: the Syrian regime has all but fallen.

Syria is now under the control and dominion of the Russians or the Iranians!

This article is an edited translation of the Arabic version, published by AlGhad.