When is the military intervention in the region?

تم نشره في Tue 15 April / Apr 2014. 05:32 PM - آخر تعديل في Tue 15 April / Apr 2014. 05:33 PM

By Fahed Khitan

For America or other Western powers to intervene militarily in Syria to resolve the conflict is not an option. There’s a zero percentage it could happen. 

U.S. President Barack Obama has become more pronounced in recent weeks when he spoke about the limits of American power; let alone the complexities of the Syrian conflict itself, and Russia's unprecedented position. These are all factors that have taken the military intervention off the table.

But the international powers, West and Russia and the regional countries, in the absence of a strategy for a political solution, are facing a dangerous challenge as long as the war continues in Syria between the regime and armed opposition groups.

The challenge, simply put, is the possible creation of a rogue, extremist state across-borders and states.

In Iraq, The Islamic State for Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) have gained on the ground, and did not lose not even a district it earned. After Anbar and Fallujah, it is looking north to control an oil refinery that provides most of Iraq's with petroleum derivatives.

In light of the projected path in Iraq after the elections, it is believed widely to weaken the grip of the central state, and see further disintegration.

ISIL fighters in Syria share with the tribal fighters control over the oil wells in the al-Hasakah and al-Riqa, as admitted by the head of the Syrian-opposition-affiliated interim government, in remarks to al-Hayat. In Iraq, the road looks paved in front of "ISIL" to control of the vital oil sites.

In the absence of the ability of the two regimes involved — Syrian and Iraqi — to stop the advances of ISIL and its coalition of sister groups, what is preventing the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant scenario?

This nightmare of a scenario is a lot more dangerous for the US, Russia, and regional countries than the Taliban government in Afghanistan, al-Qaeda and its leader Osama bin Laden, and all extremist groups in Yemen, Pakistan, and even Syria.

Is it possible for the regional countries — Jordan, GCC, and Iran — to accept an al-Qaeda-affiliated entity on its borders? Will ISIL stop with what it has achieved, or would it take the initiative to expand its borders and export its model?

Some may think that such scenario is difficult to achieve, but the facts on the ground lends it a great deal of realism. Who would have expected the conflict in Syria to reach the extent to which it reached?

The situation in the region, and in the entire world, is going by unchecked, and evolving as it pleases without there being power to control it.

Do not be surprised; everything has become expected amid this chaos. 

@fahed_khitan

 

This article is an edited translation from the Arabic edition.

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