Why is Jordan excluded from the division

تم نشره في Sun 13 July / Jul 2014. 12:46 PM - آخر تعديل في Sun 13 July / Jul 2014. 12:51 PM

By Fahed Khitan

Almost two years ago, enthusiasm for cutting up the Levant came alive again, Western research centers competed on mapping potential new states, in what was known as “Sykes-Picot 2”.

This sudden attention was not born out of the intellectual and political ambitions of the researchers or as a "conspiracy" hatched in the corridors of the international intelligence services, but an objective response to the context of the shifts in countries such as Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen; countries with multi-sectarian structure.

If the "Sykes-Picot 1" was confined to certain countries, the second edition has expanded to include Saudi Arabia and Egypt at times.

Remarkably, all the assumed scenarios excluded from Jordan from their proposed maps; only one map made ​​ Jordan a "state" among the states of Caliphate announced by the Islamic State for Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Iraq, and it seems that the source of the map is the same organization!

The question is: What makes Jordan immune against partition? Another question is that is of no lesser importance: If the partition is a Western conspiracy, why exclude Jordan?

Let's first endeavor in the search for an answer to the second question; conspiracy theories are what tickles the minds of the Arabs, to which they attribute all of their misfortunes.

I'm not, inevitably, a supporter of this theory. Take Iraq, for example. Ten years ago, it fell into the hands of the U.S. occupation, and the US could have done with it whatever it wanted. But the occupation forces left Iraq, united, and the option to partition it floated on the surface only after years of rule by Nuri al-Maliki, who took it upon himself to "oust" Iraqi Sunnis, and exclude the Kurds enough to push them to think about the option of secession.

Syria is another example; who would have imagined that Syria, which was ruled by power and violence, could slip into a sectarian war and face the threat of division?!

What I would like to say here is that what is happening internally in each country is determining its future and not the international intelligence services and spies who have supernatural powers as some delude themselves to believe.

There is no doubt that the main reason why Jordan is out of the division game is its social composition that is vastly different from a country like Iraq or Syria. The second reason is the ability of its components (state and society) to manage the crisis and avoid bloody clashes.

Some of us are not convinced by such an interpretation; there is a widespread belief that the stability of Jordan and its continuation as a unified country is part of a malignant Western scheme, since Jordan is next to Israel, and it must be preserved in order to maintain the security of Israel, as if the Syria that is threatened with division does not have a common border with Israel and Lebanon who is a candidate for a similar fate is located in a distant continent.

It is true that Israel's security is a red line for the West, but who said that slicing up Jordan does not serve Israel's security?

To reach a logical consequence, we sometimes have to ask the question in the opposite sense; if Jordan was under conditions similar to those lived by Syria now, would the partition maps exclude it, still?

The issue is not related to the nature of the political system, only, but also the strength of the social structure, evidently since division threatens countries such as Syria, governed by a one-party system, and Iraq, which is run for years under democratic system that has adopted elections, regardless of what we think of the elections.

Partitioning schemes does not exclude Jordan because it is an ally of the West and maintains relations with Israel; these factors, as important as they are, did not save the regimes in the region. Local situation is the critical component.

How much more can our local front withstand?



This article is an edited translation from the Arabic edition.