In Service of “Daesh”

By: Mohammad Aburumman

تم نشره في Mon 2 May / May 2016. 10:02 PM
  • Mohammad Aburumman

The Americans gave the green light —albeit direct or not; for the tragedy in Aleppo to occur! The Syrian regime, and their Russian backers, are now —more than ever perhaps— convinced that the American administration, having failed to act in the peak of their power, will not act now as they are about to leave the White House; comprising a “golden opportunity” to fundamentally change reality to the Regime’s favour through seizing neighbourhoods in Aleppo, under control by opposition.

The tactical goal is to shift the balance of powers, in case the Geneva “peace” talks resume. But the strategic objective is to regain control over the largest area possible, to deepen the regime’s clutches, in any way possible, setting off the “utilitarian” or “miniature” Syria discourse.

Definitely, the only effective strategy so far, is “Scorched Earth”, reaping the lives of civilians, women, and children alike, not as collateral damage, but intentionally; to evacuate cities of fighters as well as civilians fleeing death and fire, and perhaps under the supervision and the settlement of foreign players, the way it happened in earlier stages, so that regular forces may take back Aleppo, even if it were under the process of new sectarian demographic reengineering; or genocide, technically speaking!

Many see the next target after Aleppo to be Raqqa; the capital of “Daesh” (ISIS). But, to my estimates, Daraa is of higher priority and strategic value to the Syrian regime than Raqaa, as well as to Iran and Hizbollah, being close to both Damascus, and the Israeli and Lebanese borders, in addition to it being the cradle of the revolution, with the factions there seemingly discretely divided and dispersed —like Aleppo, with Jordan’s desire to not engage in any outpours of the Syrian conflict.

Jordanian officials realised, the eve of the truce in Syria; that Russia’s guarantees and promises were next to a big lie; that “neutrality” in Daraa is neither possible nor effective, and that lighting up that front will drag Jordan into considerable endangering scenarios that deeply threaten national security.

This “realisation” is supposedly being translated into active rearrangements in the Syrian south, reinforcing the “Southern Front” and their capacities to withstand. But, what if the Syrian regime employs in Daraa, the same tactics employed in Aleppo; aerial bombardment, “scorched earth”, and horrifying massacres, how will Jordan approach the situation?

So far, this does not seem to be Plan (A) to the Syrian regime, because Daraa is demographically different from Aleppo, in the meantime, as residential population remains high and holding, with most of the factions there local. But the scenario entailing dividing Daraa into neighbourhoods and boxing confrontations within confined parameters, should the truce collapse, pushes the decision makers in Amman to outline possibilities and possible approaches to clearer resolves towards these unfoldings.

Just a reminder; the strategic security implications to the collapse of the cease-fire in Syria for Jordan, should the fight re-ignite in Daraa, or should the Aleppo scene be reproduced there —even partially, incur the massive immigration of tens, maybe hundreds, of thousands of our Syrian brethren, with Jordan’s inability to close down borders, as the fight relocates to direct proximity to the Jordanian borders, instead of tens of kilometres away, which entails direct threat and increases the toll of this on borderline Jordanian territory; to finally have ISIS expand as the objective substitute to fill the void carved out as other opposition factions fail to stop the regime.

Aleppo represents an elaborate module of post-truce Syria, and of the intentions of the regime there, as well as of the level of escalated struggle to be expected. With all that said, taking Aleppo, Daraa, or even Raqqa, would not put the Syrian crisis to rest! Whoever thinks that, is totally delusional; for what happens in Aleppo today radically increases the intensity of the situation, and the capacity of Daesh to recruit, promote, immensely, inside and outside of Syria.